Oxford University Press, New York, pp 3–30īellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, Thuiller W, Courchamp F (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In: Falk DA, Holsinger KE (eds) Genetics and conservation of rare plants. doi: 10.3732/ajb.1200058īarret SCH, Kohn JR (1991) Genetic and evolutionary consequences of small population size in plants: implications for conservation. doi: 10.1111/j.īarres L, Sanmartín I, Anderson CL, Susanna A, Buerki S, Galbany-Casals M, Vilatersana R (2013) Reconstructing the evolution and biogeographic history of tribe Cardueae (Compositae). doi: 10.1111/j.īarbet-Massin M, Jiguet F, Albert CH, Thuiller W (2012) Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many? Methods Ecol Evol 3:327–338. doi: 10.1111/j.Īshcroft MB (2010) Identifying refugia from climate change. doi: 10.1111/j.Īraújo MB, Nogués-Bravo J, Diniz-Filho AF, Haywood AM, Valdes PJ, Rahbek C (2008) Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.Īraújo MB, Pearson RG (2005) Equilibrium of species’ distribution with climate. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now.
Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis, a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps.
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