We compared scenarios covering a range of parameter uncertainties including model initialization (landscape susceptibility to invasion) and expert-identified ecological uncertainties (buffelgrass patch infill rates and precipitation).
Using simulation models allowed us to evaluate how model uncertainties affected forecasted landscape outcomes. The simulation models forecast the potential extent and impact of a buffelgrass invasion including size and frequency of fire events and displacement of saguaro cacti and other native species. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass ( Cenchrus ciliaris) in Saguaro National Park, AZ, USA over a 30-year period.
Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions.
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